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19

Ripsnorter

5yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 107

Listowel · Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f

#11

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bumper winner who left previous hurdling efforts well behind when winning 11-runner handicap at Downpatrick last month by 7 lengths from Granlahan. Up 8 lb but bigger concern is the step up in trip given his free-going nature. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Naas 05/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 2m Hvy 1645/01C?C0 @ Killarney 17/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 2m1f Yie 164C0 @ Roscommon 05/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 1645/08C?C8 @ Listowel 27/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR - · 2m Goo 161C8 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 2m50y Goo 16630/05C8C8 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f89y Gd 166BHA99 @ Ballinrobe 10/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 99 · 2m109y Goo 155 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 99 par10/0899OR 99BHA99 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 99 · 2m1f165y Gd 168 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 99 par31/0899OR 99projClass-projected finish: 6th of 21
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA991st1st0
2026-08-10BallinrobeBHA998th8th0
2026-07-21Ballinrobe?6th6th0
2026-05-30Tramore?7th7th0
2025-09-27Listowel?10th10th0
2025-08-05Roscommon?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0127/0910/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2185% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 21. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/01/20253rd9/153%75%+0.22
17/07/20253rd9/153%83%+0.31
05/08/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
27/09/202510th7/163%44%-0.19
30/05/20267th28/10%57%+0.57
21/07/20266th11/142%64%+0.22
10/08/20268th14/126%46%+0.20
31/08/20261st14/126%100%+0.74