2
Chanceawetmorning
6yo Gelding · 11-12
Listowel · Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Chase · 2m 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C11.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA125 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | BHA125 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | BHA126 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA118 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 79% | +0.37 |
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 93% | +0.03 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/06/2026 | 9th | 6/4 | 92% | 11% | -0.81 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |