4
I Will Be Baie
8yo Gelding · 11-12
Listowel · Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Chase · 2m 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
76%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-03 | Leopardstown | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-01-01 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2023-09-23 | Listowel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2023-08-03 | Galway | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2023-06-10 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2023 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 03/08/2023 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 23/09/2023 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 01/01/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/02/2024 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |