IvyArcIvyArc
7

Love Me Tender

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Listowel · Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Chase · 2m 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Highly impressive when making it 3-3 in Grade 3 at Tipperary in October 2025. Progress has rather stalled in better company since and failed to meet market expectations sent chasing after 3 months off when fourth at Galway recently. Back up in trip and seems sure to improve for that experience.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Tramore 30/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 2m Goo 16230/05C?C8 @ Kilbeggan 25/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 2m2f200y Goo 1611 @ Tipperary 05/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m20y Goo 1545/1011 @ Leopardstown 27/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m Yie 1661 @ Leopardstown 02/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 138 · 2m6f53y Hvy 164 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 138 par2/021OR 1381 @ Fairyhouse 05/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 136 · 2m4f Yie 160 · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 136 par1 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 136 · 2m7f190y Yie 164 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 136 par29/041OR 136C0 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 2m2f54y Gd 16628/07C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Galway?4th4th0
2026-04-29Punchestown15th5th0
2026-04-05Fairyhouse14th4th0
2026-02-02Leopardstown13rd3rd0
2025-12-27Leopardstown13rd3rd0
2025-10-05Tipperary11st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0527/1229/0428/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength66%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20251st1/297%100%+0.03
25/07/20251st30/10098%100%+0.02
05/10/20251st1/499%100%+0.01
27/12/20253rd4/179%71%-0.08
02/02/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
05/04/20264th7/282%70%-0.12
29/04/20265th10/147%69%+0.22
28/07/20264th6/492%67%-0.25