8
Our Soldier
7yo Gelding · 11-12
Listowel · Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Chase · 2m 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | Bellewstown | BHA110 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Wexford | BHA102 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Bellewstown | BHA98 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-20 | Cork | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-02-24 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-12-26 | Down Royal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2023 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 10/03/2024 | 7th | 16/5 | 83% | 14% | -0.69 |
| 26/12/2024 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 24/02/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 20/03/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 12/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 90% | +0.48 |
| 17/05/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |