11
Three County Star
5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 75
Listowel · Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Chase · 2m 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
200/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 9.2)
Highest class: BHA76
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | BHA76 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA77 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA78 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | BHA80 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Cork | BHA82 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength35%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 19th | 80/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 29/12/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/01/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 150/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 10/05/2026 | 13th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 62% | -0.02 |
| 10/08/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |