12
Will Do
9yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 128
Listowel · Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Chase · 2m 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | BHA130 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | BHA132 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-10 | Cheltenham | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gowran Park | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-27 | Leopardstown | 1 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength90%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.05 |
| 20/02/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 94% | +0.33 |
| 11/03/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 21/04/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 19/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 16/11/2025 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 39% | -0.03 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 27/12/2025 | 18th | 12/1 | 37% | 37% | +0.00 |
| 10/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |