7
Sydney Carton
2yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 76
Newmarket · Plantation Stud British EBF Maiden Stakes · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 14th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-05-27 | Beverley | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +26.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 18/06/2026 | 14th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 17/09/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |