5
Bear On The Run
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 89
Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -6.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Curragh | BHA87 | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2025-08-15 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2025-05-05 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 12th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +41.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |