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7

Lady Roxby

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 80

Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back on track when runner-up at Kempton earlier this month and filled the same position at Yarmouth 10 days later. Found only one too good in this last year from a 2 lb higher mark and has to be taken seriously with Ryan retaining the ride.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength34%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 6f3y Goo 130 · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 82 par16/093OR 822 @ Newmarket 25/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 82 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark06/04/2026 · OR 84 par6/044OR 843 @ Newmarket 01/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 83 · 6f GF 138 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 83 par1 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 82 · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 82 par22/051OR 822 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 82 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 80 · 5f GF 138 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 80 par24/074OR 804 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 79 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Yarmouth 15/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 80 · 6f3y Goo 130 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 80 par15/093OR 80projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Yarmouth32nd3rd−1
2026-09-05Kempton42nd4th−2
2026-07-24Ascot49th11th−2
2026-06-12York27th7th0
2026-05-22Haydock17th6th+1
2026-05-01Newmarket37th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/091/0524/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20252nd7/282%88%+0.06
25/09/20252nd7/282%90%+0.08
06/04/20263rd5/287%67%-0.20
01/05/20267th10/382%40%-0.42
22/05/20267th33/10%57%+0.57
12/06/20267th4/179%45%-0.33
24/07/20269th10/382%0%-0.82
05/09/20262nd15/261%90%+0.29
15/09/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03