6
Miss Nightcap
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 88
Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Pontefract | 1 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Leicester | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-01 | Newbury | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Windsor | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -17.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 16/08/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |