IvyArcIvyArc
8

Powdering

6yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 79

Newmarket · British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had excuses on a few occasions before getting off the mark for the season over the July course here in June but has struggled for consistency since. Third in this last year and has claims of a minor role once more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength34%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 6f16y Std 142 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 79 par15/044OR 793 @ Newmarket 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 79 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 78 par17/053OR 781 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newmarket 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 76 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 76 par26/064OR 763 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 80 · 6f GF 130 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Newmarket 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 80 · 6f Goo 135 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 80 par21/084OR 804 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 79 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 79 par3 @ Yarmouth 15/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 79 · 6f3y Goo 129 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 79 par15/093OR 79projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Yarmouth37th8th−1
2026-09-05Kempton43rd5th−2
2026-08-21Newmarket47th9th−2
2026-07-17Newmarket33rd4th−1
2026-06-26Newmarket41st3rd−2
2026-05-22Haydock114th13th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0422/0521/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength29%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
01/05/20263rd11/142%80%+0.38
17/05/20266th17/255%38%-0.18
22/05/202614th150/10%7%+0.07
26/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
17/07/20263rd10/382%71%-0.11
21/08/20267th9/276%14%-0.62
05/09/20263rd17/255%80%+0.25
15/09/20267th22/10%25%+0.25