9

Beauty Box

2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 81

Newmarket · Federation of Bloodstock Agents Nursery · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promise first 2 starts before finding a weak race at Ripon (6f) in June, making all. Last of 8 in Newbury listed race next time but got back on the up switched to a nursery fitted with a first-time hood when winning 5-runner event at Yarmouth (5f, firm) 7 weeks ago. 4 lb higher now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS15/0423 @ Windsor 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 1284/0534 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f Gd 12817/0641 @ Newmarket 25/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 77 par25/061OR 774 @ Yarmouth 05/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 77 · 5f42y GF 130 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 77 par5/084OR 77projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05Yarmouth41st2nd1
2026-06-25Newmarket18th5th+2
2026-06-17Ripon41st2nd1
2026-05-04Windsor32nd2nd0
2026-04-15Newmarket24th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/044/0517/0625/065/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength68%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20264th12/137%57%+0.20
04/05/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
17/06/20261st1/398%100%+0.02
25/06/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
05/08/20261st17/255%100%+0.45