6
Black Velvet Boy
2yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 83
Newmarket · Federation of Bloodstock Agents Nursery · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Thirsk | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thirsk | 5 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |