1
Napa
2yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 90
Newmarket · Federation of Bloodstock Agents Nursery · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 1 | 7th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sandown | 1 | 8th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-03 | Newmarket | 2 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 10-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -16.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |