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11

Valdoro

2yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 78

Newmarket · Federation of Bloodstock Agents Nursery · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

All the better for his debut when 2½ lengths third of 9 at Windsor (6f, good to soft) on return last month but only fourth of 7 in novice at Sandown (5f, soft) just under a fortnight ago. Makes nursery debut but will find much easier openings than this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 26/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f Goo 13326/0544 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f12y Gd 13029/0844 @ Sandown 11/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f10y Sft 13111/094projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Sandown44th5th−1
2026-08-29Windsor43rd4th−1
2026-05-26Leicester46th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0529/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -30.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/05/20266th50/10%29%+0.29
29/08/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
11/09/20264th7/282%50%-0.32