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Great Balls O'Fire

2yo Colt · 9-2

Newmarket · Tattersalls Stakes (Registered As The Somerville Tattersall Stakes) (Group 3) · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

135,000 gns yearling, Too Darn Hot colt who was all the rage in the betting and made a winning start in 6-runner novice on July course (6f, good) last month, picking up in taking fashion once he realised what was required. Takes the immediate step up to pattern company.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f Gd 13322/084
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Newmarket41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-4 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20261st6/492%100%+0.08