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5

Mezzo Forte

2yo Colt · 9-2

Newmarket · Tattersalls Stakes (Registered As The Somerville Tattersall Stakes) (Group 3) · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Wootton Bassett colt who was much sharper 11 weeks on from his debut and also proved well suited by the longer trip when winning 11-runner maiden at York (7f, good) earlier in the month. Will go on improving so warrants considerable respect upped in grade with Moore taking over.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 13027/0622 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 7f GS 1336/092projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York21st3rd−1
2026-06-27York25th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/066/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength96%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/06/20265th11/142%60%+0.18
06/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18