IvyArcIvyArc
6

Notable Dream

2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 95

Newmarket · Tattersalls Stakes (Registered As The Somerville Tattersall Stakes) (Group 3) · 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promise over 6f on debut and was much improved when winning 6-runner maiden at Lingfield (7f) later in May, making all for a 6-length victory. Found out in better company in Superlative Stakes on the July course (7f, good to firm) 11 weeks ago and others more appealing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f2y Goo 1332/0543 @ Lingfield 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f Goo 13318/0531 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 94 · 7f GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 94 par11/071OR 94projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Newmarket16th6th+0
2026-05-18Lingfield31st4th−2
2026-05-02Doncaster43rd7th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0518/0511/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +11.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20263rd13/266%60%-0.06
18/05/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
11/07/20266th25/10%17%+0.17