9
Varzi
2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 96
Newmarket · Tattersalls Stakes (Registered As The Somerville Tattersall Stakes) (Group 3) · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Doncaster | 1 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Pontefract | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +21.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |