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2

Arabian Force

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 108

Newmarket · Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed) · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed 3 times at listed/Group 3 level since his career-best third in Group 2 Great Voltigeur last summer. Flying too high in first-time cheekpieces following a gelding operation in Irish St Leger last time. Interesting with sights lowered and potentially better to come on first try over 2m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 15/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m1f201y GF 13415/0541 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 99 · 1m1f212y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2025 · OR 99 par1 @ Hamilton 18/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 95 · 1m3f15y Goo 133 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 95 par18/071OR 951 @ York 20/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 103 · 1m3f188y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2025 · OR 103 par1 @ Ascot 03/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 111 · 1m6f34y GS 129 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 111 par3/101OR 1111 @ ParisLongchamp 12/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 110 · 1m3f204y GS 125 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 110 · 1m4f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 110 par16/051OR 1101 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 109 · 1m5f188y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 109 par1 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 109 · 1m6f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 109 par13/091OR 109projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Curragh16th5th+1
2026-07-11York13rd3rd+0
2026-05-16Newbury13rd3rd+0
2026-04-12ParisLongchamp12nd2nd0
2025-10-03Ascot13rd3rd0
2025-08-20York13rd3rd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0520/0816/0513/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
19/06/20257th16/116%45%+0.30
18/07/20252nd7/282%83%+0.02
20/08/20253rd10/147%67%+0.19
03/10/20253rd7/282%71%-0.10
12/04/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
16/05/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26
11/07/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28
13/09/20266th33/10%17%+0.17