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3

Burdett Road

6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 97

Newmarket · Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed) · 2m

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart dual-purpose performer at his best. Continued below form despite making a better fist of things when beaten 5¾ lengths in the Ebor at York (1¾m). Hard to be confident that step back up to 2m will spark a full-scale revival, for all he hasn't had many tries at this trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Kempton 19/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 150 · 2m Goo 160 · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 150 par19/101OR 1501 @ Cheltenham 15/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 149 · 1m7f199y Sft 158 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 149 parC5 @ Meydan 02/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 109 · 1m6f Gd 130 · below its mark02/01/2026 · OR 109 par2/01C5OR 109C0 @ Meydan 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 107 · 1m4f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 107 parC0 @ Meydan 28/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 107 · 2m Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 107 par28/03C?OR 1072 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 105 · 1m3f211y GF 138 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 105 par2 @ Newmarket 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 103 · 1m4f GF 138 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 103 par4/072OR 1032 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 101 · 1m6f GF 134 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 101 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 101 · 1m5f188y Goo 129 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 101 par22/082OR 101projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York27th8th−1
2026-08-01Goodwood211th12th−1
2026-07-04Newmarket26th7th−1
2026-06-19Royal Ascot210th11th−1
2026-03-28Meydan?7th7th+0
2026-02-28Meydan?3rd3rd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1028/024/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +9.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/10/20252nd11/893%67%-0.26
15/11/20253rd9/276%60%-0.16
02/01/20262nd15/261%91%+0.30
28/02/20263rd9/153%71%+0.19
28/03/20267th22/10%33%+0.33
19/06/202610th40/10%44%+0.44
04/07/20266th22/10%55%+0.55
01/08/202611th25/10%17%+0.17
22/08/20267th80/10%71%+0.71