10
Kelly Burn
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 78
Newmarket · Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed) · 2m
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Goodwood | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Yarmouth | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 5 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 26/11/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/02/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |