6
Orchard Keeper
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 93
Newmarket · Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed) · 2m
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Bath | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Chester | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Newmarket | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-07-18 | Newbury | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 23/05/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |