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Pinatique

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 86

Newmarket · Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed) · 2m

#10

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Came up short in listed company for Jean-Claude Rouget in France. Shaped better than on stable debut despite not settling off a stop-start gallop when 2½-length third in Class 4 handicap at York (2m) last time. Still early days as a stayer, however, she's back up significantly in class here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 28/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m1f97y Sft 12528/03C5C1 @ Toulouse 20/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f96y Hvy 123C5 @ Lyon-Parilly 31/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 12231/05C5C1 @ Vichy 17/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 123C1 @ Deauville 17/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m4f94y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS17/08C1C1 @ Toulouse 01/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m3f204y GS 120C1 @ Saint-Cloud 09/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 1239/11C14 @ Newbury 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 86 · 1m4f GF 139 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 85 · 2m56y GS 142 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 85 par6/094OR 85projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York43rd7th−3
2026-08-15Newbury44th8th−3
2025-11-09Saint-Cloud?12th12th0
2025-10-01Toulouse?6th6th0
2025-08-17Deauville?9th9th+0
2025-07-17Vichy?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0317/079/116/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +9.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
20/04/20256th7/491%29%-0.62
31/05/20254th11/271%40%-0.31
17/07/20256th17/255%0%-0.55
17/08/20259th66/10%11%+0.11
01/10/20256th22/10%58%+0.58
09/11/202512th80/10%8%+0.08
15/08/20264th11/142%25%-0.17
06/09/20263rd22/10%82%+0.82