5
Spirit Mixer
8yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 90
Newmarket · Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed) · 2m
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 19th | 20th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 2 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kempton | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Newmarket | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 20/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 08/05/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 27/06/2026 | 19th | 18/1 | 5% | 5% | 0.00 |
| 08/08/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |