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5

Charles Darnay

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 83

Newmarket · Budds Horseracing Memorabilia Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced 3-y-o who was very much on the up in 4 all-weather starts earlier this year. Value for extra when last seen completing a double on handicap debut at Lingfield in early-June. Since undergone a breathing operation and remains totally unexposed as he bids for a hat-trick on turf debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Lingfield 17/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 7f1y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS17/0125 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m13y Std 1197/0254 @ Kempton 02/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m3f219y Sta 1162/0344 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 76 · 1m4f Std 134 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 76 par1/064OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-01Lingfield41st1st0
2026-03-02Kempton41st1st0
2026-02-07Southwell53rd4th−1
2026-01-17Lingfield25th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/017/022/031/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -6.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/20265th66/10%33%+0.33
07/02/20263rd7/491%82%-0.09
02/03/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
01/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06