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9

La Peregrina

3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 73

Newmarket · Budds Horseracing Memorabilia Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 4f

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

First past post at Goodwood in June (demoted after causing interference) prior to making the most of a good opportunity at Thirsk (1½m, good). Seemingly no excuses for again being turned over at odds on at Lingfield last time, though, and he's pitched into a better race here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 13027/1053 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m3f23y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Southwell 14/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS14/0335 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 65 · 1m2f Gd 130 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 64 · 1m3f218y Goo 129 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 64 par19/065OR 645 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 67 · 1m5f61y GF 130 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 70 · 1m4f8y Goo 129 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 70 par1/085OR 705 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 73 · 1m5f Std 133 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 73 par1/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Lingfield53rd4th−1
2026-08-01Thirsk51st2nd−1
2026-07-09Newbury52nd3rd−1
2026-06-19Goodwood51st2nd−1
2026-05-15Newbury512th13th−1
2026-03-14Southwell35th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1015/051/081/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -8.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20256th33/10%17%+0.17
28/02/20265th18/15%20%+0.15
14/03/20265th80/10%56%+0.56
15/05/202612th20/10%15%+0.15
19/06/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
09/07/20262nd4/596%75%-0.21
01/08/20261st4/797%100%+0.03
01/09/20263rd4/596%50%-0.46