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2

A La Noche

5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 74

Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Never looked like justifying support on belated reappearance, however, proved a different proposition when successful in a race that's worked out better than expected (second won since) at Salisbury latest. Still lightly raced for his age and can make bold bid off 5 lb higher with Buick booked.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2023 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS1/0824 @ Newbury 18/08/2023 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS18/0844 @ Sandown 20/09/2023 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS20/0945 @ Epsom Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 68 · 7f3y Goo 142 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 68 par14/085OR 685 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 1m Goo 137 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 67 par3/095OR 67projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Salisbury51st1st0
2026-08-14Epsom Downs59th9th0
2023-09-20Sandown46th5th+1
2023-08-18Newbury45th4th+1
2023-08-01Goodwood26th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0818/0820/0914/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20236th10/147%58%+0.11
18/08/20235th11/271%20%-0.51
20/09/20236th25/10%44%+0.44
14/08/20269th4/179%0%-0.79
03/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24