12
Born A Rebel
5yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 66
Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Yarmouth | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 12/06/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 17/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |