Cancan In The Rain
6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 75
Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
44%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Yarmouth | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Ascot | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 01/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 81% | +0.39 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 63% | -0.01 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 81% | -0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 04/09/2026 | 10th | 11/4 | 86% | 10% | -0.76 |