Ecclefechan
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 75
Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Windsor | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Windsor | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 57% | -0.35 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |