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11

Eloquencia

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 71

Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sea The Stars filly who improved to make a winning handicap debut in first-time cheekpieces at Ripon (1¼m). Didn't look herself when bidding to follow up at Chester in early-July and too soon to discount given her pedigree/connections (also saddle Warning Symbol).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS16/0424 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS6/0544 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m2f37y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0545 @ Ripon 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 1m1f170y Gd 128 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 68 par17/065OR 685 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 72 · 1m4f Goo 132 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 72 par3/075OR 72projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Chepstow54th4th0
2026-06-17Ripon51st1st0
2026-05-22Bath42nd1st+1
2026-05-06Kempton42nd1st+1
2026-04-16Newmarket23rd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/046/0522/0517/063/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -28.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/04/20263rd18/15%50%+0.45
06/05/20262nd11/142%86%+0.44
22/05/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
17/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
03/07/20264th9/488%0%-0.88