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Media Legend

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 74

Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced sort who was steadily improving when keeping-on third at Newbury (7f) last month. Unsuited by emphasis on speed when failing to land the odds at Wolverhampton (8.5f) latest. Oisin Murphy booked and could well resume progress in first-time cheekpieces on a more suitable track.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 13/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 7f Sta 13013/1054 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS5/1145 @ Southwell 12/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 13312/1253 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 77 par16/053OR 774 @ Newbury 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 76 par14/084OR 765 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 75 · 1m142y Std 136 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 75 par1/095OR 75projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton54th4th0
2026-08-14Newbury43rd2nd+1
2026-05-16Newbury35th3rd+2
2025-12-12Southwell53rd3rd0
2025-11-05Kempton42nd1st+1
2025-10-13Kempton55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/105/1112/1216/0514/081/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%

Delivery trend -16.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/10/20255th25/10%64%+0.64
05/11/20252nd11/486%88%+0.02
12/12/20253rd15/890%71%-0.19
16/05/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
14/08/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04
01/09/20264th5/696%40%-0.56