Potomac River
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 71
Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Haydock | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 09/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |