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3

Signcastle City

6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 72

Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Consistent sort whose latest success came off this mark in a similar event at Chelmsford in February. Split a pair of next-time-out winners when 2¾-length third at Windsor last time. Makes plenty of appeal back down in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength83%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 26/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 74 · 7f Std 134 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 74 par26/025OR 744 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 74 · 1m Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 74 par2 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 74 · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 74 par7/042OR 745 @ Bath 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 1m Fm 135 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Lingfield 12/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m1y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 74 par12/054OR 744 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 22 · OR 73 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Newbury 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 142 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 75 par23/065OR 754 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 74 · 1m GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 73 · 1m31y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 73 par13/084OR 73projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Windsor43rd2nd+1
2026-07-09Newbury44th3rd+1
2026-06-23Newbury55th5th0
2026-05-23York42nd1st+1
2026-05-12Lingfield43rd2nd+1
2026-04-29Bath52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0229/0423/0613/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +7.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/02/20265th9/591%43%-0.48
12/03/20264th5/174%50%-0.24
07/04/202610th6/168%25%-0.43
29/04/20262nd10/1195%80%-0.15
12/05/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
23/05/20262nd9/153%95%+0.43
23/06/20265th3/184%64%-0.21
09/07/20264th17/255%73%+0.17
13/08/20263rd15/261%71%+0.11