Souffler
3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 75
Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lingfield | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Newmarket | 2 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-09-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |