Warning Symbol
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 74
Newmarket · JRA Japan Cup Handicap · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-18 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-07-29 | Goodwood | 2 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-07-14 | Windsor | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 29/07/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 28/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |