4
Biglesisback
6yo Mare · 11-0 · OR 104
Perth · Saltire Hospitality EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 35y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Wetherby | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Ayr | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-01 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Kelso | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Hexham | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Perth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 92% | -0.01 |
| 07/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 17/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |