2
Poetic Twist
5yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 108
Perth · Saltire Hospitality EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 35y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -4.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | BHA109 | 6th | 14th | −7 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA110 | 2nd | 10th | −7 |
| 2026-05-29 | Tramore | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Cork | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Ayr | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 05/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 93% | +0.05 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |