5
Sleedagh
6yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 116
Perth · Christmas Party Nights At Perth Racecourse Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 20y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Perth | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Doncaster | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Musselburgh | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ayr | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-03 | Haydock | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Perth | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -13.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 03/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 24/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |