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Tamarind Bay

6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 137

Perth · Christmas Party Nights At Perth Racecourse Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 20y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

98%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A different proposition since switched to fences, scoring with ease at Stratford and Uttoxeter in June. Looked the likely winner when unseating late on here before impressively resuming winning ways at Bangor (3m) 20 days ago. Hiked up 9 lb but more to come. Engaged 3.57 Perth Wednesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Worcester 05/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 113 · 2m4f Goo 161 · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 113 par5/094OR 1134 @ Hexham 11/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 115 · 2m48y Gd 156 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 115 par4 @ Kelso 08/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 114 · 2m6f151y Goo 154 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 114 par8/114OR 1144 @ Ffos Las 19/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 113 · 2m4f Sft 158 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 113 par3 @ Doncaster 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 111 · 2m3f88y Sft 161 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 111 par28/023OR 1114 @ Newcastle 31/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 115 · 2m6f Goo 168 · below its mark31/03/2026 · OR 115 par4 @ Stratford 16/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 115 · 2m6f125y Goo 168 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 115 par16/064OR 1153 @ Uttoxeter 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 123 · 2m4f Goo 147 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 123 par2 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 128 · 3m30y Goo 163 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 128 par4/092OR 128projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee21st0th+1
2026-08-15Perth30
2026-06-28Uttoxeter31st1st0
2026-06-16Stratford41st2nd−1
2026-03-31Newcastle43rd4th−1
2026-02-28Doncaster32nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0919/1116/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20253rd85/4089%71%-0.17
11/10/20254th9/488%57%-0.31
08/11/20252nd9/488%83%-0.05
19/11/20253rd11/271%33%-0.38
28/02/20262nd11/142%86%+0.44
31/03/20263rd6/168%71%+0.03
16/06/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
28/06/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
04/09/20261st5/493%100%+0.07