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2

The Last Cloud

6yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 126

Perth · Christmas Party Nights At Perth Racecourse Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 20y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a course hat-trick over hurdles last summer prior to solid efforts in Grade 1 Formby and Grade 2 River Don. Took his first wrong step when pulled up at Kelso in February but shaped well under a considerate ride back here (2m) on final start and is the type to make a chaser. Tongue tied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength50%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 10/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 3m1f71y Goo 15810/0244 @ Catterick 25/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 1614 @ Perth 15/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 108 · 2m47y Gd 158 · beat its mark15/05/2025 · OR 108 par15/054OR 1084 @ Perth 08/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 108 · 2m47y Gd 168 · beat its mark08/06/2025 · OR 108 par4 @ Perth 08/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 117 · 2m47y Gd 168 · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 117 par8/094OR 1171 @ Cheltenham 24/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 123 · 2m87y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 123 par1 @ Aintree 26/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 123 · 2m209y GS 162 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 123 par26/121OR 1231 @ Doncaster 24/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 129 · 3m84y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/01/2026 · OR 129 par2 @ Perth 15/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 129 · 2m47y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 129 par15/082OR 129projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Perth26th5th+1
2026-02-28Kelso1+2
2026-01-24Doncaster13rd1st+2
2025-12-26Aintree13rd1st+2
2025-10-24Cheltenham14th2nd+2
2025-09-08Perth41st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/028/0626/1215/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength52%

Delivery trend -7.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/02/20253rd33/10%67%+0.67
25/02/20252nd8/158%90%+0.32
15/05/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
08/06/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
08/09/20251st10/1195%100%+0.05
24/10/20254th6/168%73%+0.04
26/12/20253rd18/15%60%+0.55
24/01/20263rd18/581%82%+0.01
15/08/20266th4/179%29%-0.50