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5

Curious Mrs Fox

5yo Mare · 11-3 · OR 84

Perth · House Of Bruar Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Poor maiden on the Flat but she's learning with experience over hurdles and wasn't beaten far when second of 11 in handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter (2m) in July. Similar form when third at Sedgefield 2 weeks ago and she can remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 11/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 45 · 2m56y Std 128 · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 45 par11/096OR 456 @ Newcastle 26/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 45 · 1m2f42y Std 124 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 45 par4 @ Newcastle 31/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m4f62y Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS31/0344 @ Market Rasen 14/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m125y Gd 160 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Fakenham 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 92 · 2m4f1y Gd 164 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 92 par4/055OR 925 @ Hexham 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 89 · 2m48y Gd 152 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 89 par5 @ Hexham 21/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 84 · 2m48y Gd 154 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 84 par21/065OR 845 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 83 · 1m7f168y Gd 153 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 83 par5 @ Sedgefield 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 2m3f188y Goo 152 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 84 par9/095OR 84projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Sedgefield53rd3rd0
2026-07-26Uttoxeter52nd2nd0
2026-06-21Hexham54th4th0
2026-06-13Hexham56th6th0
2026-05-04Fakenham56th6th0
2026-04-14Market Rasen43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0914/0421/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/09/20259th80/10%27%+0.27
26/09/20258th80/10%0%0.00
31/03/20264th50/10%57%+0.57
14/04/20263rd66/10%67%+0.67
04/05/20266th33/10%29%+0.29
13/06/20266th100/10%44%+0.44
21/06/20264th50/10%67%+0.67
26/07/20262nd18/15%90%+0.85
09/09/20263rd7/163%67%+0.04