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Elemental Eye

5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 93

Perth · House Of Bruar Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In good form on the Flat this summer (easy to forgive latest start on heavy going) but low-key handicap debut over hurdles when last of 8 over C&D 17 days ago. Cheekpieces go on for the first time over obstacles.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kelso 29/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 2m51y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS29/1244 @ Musselburgh 15/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m7f124y Goo 161 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 67 · 1m4f98y Std 130 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 67 par6/035OR 675 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 65 · 2m Goo 131 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 63 · 1m7f217y Gd 124 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 63 par5/065OR 635 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 61 · 1m4f98y Sta 128 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 67 · 1m5f26y Gd 142 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 67 par6/075OR 675 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 68 · 2m32y Hvy 140 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Perth 07/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 96 · 2m47y Gd 145 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 96 par7/094OR 96projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Perth48th7th+1
2026-08-30Beverley57th7th0
2026-07-06Ayr52nd2nd0
2026-06-27Newcastle51st1st0
2026-06-05Musselburgh53rd3rd0
2026-05-17Ripon55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1217/056/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength20%

Delivery trend -6.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/12/20259th66/10%20%+0.20
15/02/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
06/03/20265th25/10%33%+0.33
17/05/20265th11/142%20%-0.22
05/06/20263rd7/163%50%-0.13
27/06/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
06/07/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
30/08/20267th10/382%0%-0.82
07/09/20268th16/116%0%-0.16