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Expert Analysis

4yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 93

Perth · House Of Bruar Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/4

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair Flat maiden in Ireland and looks an improved performer over hurdles for current yard, finding only one a short-head too good at Sedgefield 10 days ago (pair clear). Claims are fairly obvious from the same mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength9%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.4
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA65 @ Roscommon 01/07/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 65 · 1m2f63y Yie 131 · below its mark01/07/2025 · OR 65 par1/0765OR 65BHA61 @ Fairyhouse 09/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 61 · 7f Gd 123 · below its mark09/07/2025 · OR 61 parC0 @ Punchestown 14/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m46y Goo 15214/10C?C8 @ Galway 25/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 2m90y Yie 154C8 @ Fairyhouse 04/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 2m Sft 1544/11C8BHA57 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m2f150y Std 127 · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 57 parBHA53 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 136 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 53 par10/0453OR 535 @ Sedgefield 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 95 · 2m178y Goo 164 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 95 par5 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 93 · 2m178y Goo 163 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 93 par14/095OR 93projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Sedgefield52nd2nd0
2026-08-28Sedgefield53rd3rd0
2026-05-26BallinrobeBHA96−5
2026-04-10DundalkBHA539th9th−0
2025-11-14DundalkBHA575th6th−1
2025-11-04Fairyhouse?12th16th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0725/1010/0414/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/07/202510th50/10%0%0.00
09/07/202511th40/10%33%+0.33
14/10/20255th125/10%43%+0.43
25/10/20258th22/10%13%+0.13
04/11/202512th50/10%15%+0.15
14/11/20255th25/10%56%+0.56
10/04/20269th16/116%27%+0.11
28/08/20263rd10/147%78%+0.30
14/09/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18