2
Gonnino
7yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 91
Perth · House Of Bruar Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Perth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Kelso | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Musselburgh | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-08 | Musselburgh | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -10.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 15/05/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 08/06/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 77% | +0.11 |
| 08/12/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 89% | +0.34 |
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 03/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |