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8

Ribble River

5yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 73

Perth · House Of Bruar Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle · 2m 47y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

72%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair middle-distance Flat winner for Kevin Ryan. Little show over hurdles so far (also well held on the level recently) but yard no stranger to winners here and this just his second handicap start in this sphere. Cheekpieces on first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 08/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 68 · 1m4f5y Goo 140 · beat its mark08/07/2025 · OR 68 par8/075OR 685 @ Beverley 21/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 67 · 1m1f207y Sft 137 · beat its mark21/07/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Haydock 04/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 66 · 1m3f140y Goo 154 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 66 par4/095OR 665 @ Haydock 26/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 70 · 1m2f42y GS 140 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Sedgefield 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 2m178y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS10/0444 @ Cartmel 27/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f46y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Hexham 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 2m48y Gd 156 · HIGHER CLASS13/0635 @ Cartmel 18/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 76 · 2m1f46y Gd 147 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 76 par5 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 69 · 1m3f140y Sft 155 · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 69 par3/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock510th10th0
2026-07-18Cartmel56th6th0
2026-06-13Hexham36th4th+2
2026-05-27Cartmel45th4th+1
2026-04-10Sedgefield45th4th+1
2026-02-05Doncaster4+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0726/0913/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/07/20253rd5/174%50%-0.24
21/07/20254th11/142%50%+0.08
04/09/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
26/09/20253rd7/282%71%-0.10
10/04/20265th40/10%0%0.00
27/05/20265th20/10%33%+0.33
13/06/20266th50/10%38%+0.38
18/07/20266th28/10%29%+0.29
03/09/202610th40/10%10%+0.10