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Midnight Moonshine

7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 100

Perth · Equine Products UK Best Turned Out Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 180y

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Out of sorts for William Harvey but did offer a tad more encouragement when fifth of 8 starting out for a new yard over hurdles here 17 days ago, left poorly placed given how the race unfolded. Task is to build on that returned to chasing with cheekpieces reapplied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 14.1 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C9.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -5.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA102 @ Fairyhouse 11/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 102 · 3m104y Yie 148 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 102 par11/10102OR 102BHA105 @ Down Royal 01/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 105 · 3m Goo 151 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 105 parBHA105 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 105 · 2m6f Goo 161 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 105 par27/11105OR 105BHA105 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 105 · 2m Goo 161 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 105 parBHA103 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 103 · 2m6f Goo 159 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 103 par30/05103OR 103BHA105 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 105 · 3m116y Gd 151 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 105 parBHA100 @ Wexford 22/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 100 · 3m155y Gd 168 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 100 par22/07100OR 100BHA98 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 98 · 3m1f14y Sft 168 · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 98 par5 @ Perth 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 105 · 2m7f207y Gd 168 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 105 par7/095OR 105projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Perth55th6th−1
2026-08-04RoscommonBHA986th13th−6
2026-07-22WexfordBHA1005th12th−6
2026-07-04BellewstownBHA10511th19th−7
2026-05-30TramoreBHA1039th17th−6
2026-05-07WexfordBHA10510th18th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/107/0522/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength42%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20253rd3/184%82%-0.02
01/11/20254th6/168%75%+0.07
27/11/20253rd11/142%86%+0.44
07/05/202610th17/255%18%-0.37
30/05/20269th13/266%20%-0.46
04/07/202611th22/10%29%+0.29
22/07/20265th16/116%71%+0.56
04/08/20266th12/137%67%+0.30
07/09/20265th20/10%43%+0.43