5
Sir Carnegie
6yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 105
Perth · Equine Products UK Best Turned Out Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 180y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Hexham | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Perth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Perth | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 18/5 | 81% | 50% | -0.31 |
| 31/03/2026 | 4th | 18/5 | 81% | 40% | -0.41 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |